Institute for a Greater EuropeParadigm changes in Swedish politics
The nationalist Sverigedemokraterna (Sweden Democrats) ended up as the biggest winner when the Swedes went to the ballot boxes the 11th of September, in an election that revolved almost exclusively around migration issues. Victory of the right coalition including Sweden Democrats raises the question whether Sweden is bound to undergo a right-wing surge.
Winning slightly more than 20 per cent of the votes, the Sweden Democrats emerged the second biggest party after Socialdemokraterna (Social Democrats); and the biggest in the right bloc where they superseded Moderaterna (Moderate Party) who, for the first time in decades, had to relinquish the second spot. The Sweden Democrats entered the parliament for the first time in 2010, when they superseded the required four per cent threshold, and their popularity has only increased in every election since.
Despite having its roots in movements on the far-right, the party has long abandoned this heritage, and nowadays gains popularity among people from all over the political spectrum, not the least among immigrants, who consider the party the only bulwark against the rise of political Islam. Apart from establishing stricter migration laws, the party focuses on cultural adaptation, requirements on language skills and knowledge of the country’s society to obtain citizenship and supply to welfare. These are proposals a large segment of the population agree upon. Although traditionally hostile to the European Union, the Sweden Democrats has adopted a softer approach and does not advocate for a “Swexit” anymore; instead, they wish to diminish Brussel’s power over the member states. Furthermore, the party is pro-Israel, and relatively LBTQ-friendly.
During the last decade the party has gained popularity in particular for addressing the problems stemming from the failed integration politics related to a migration policy, considered by the vast majority as way too loose and indulgent. The policy conducted by the rightist as well as leftist parties in the recent decades can be viewed as rather unique and is usually labeled an open-door policy. As a result, the part of the population born in other countries has in only two decades increased to 20 per cent. The number is even more remarkable if one considers that the majority has come from societies completely remote from the Swedish one (Neuding).
In order to isolate Sweden Democrats, the traditional parties formed a kind of pro-immigration coalition, while avoiding the immigration topic, despite its increasing urgency for the public, which should come as no surprise, taken into account that Sweden for years has had the highest level of immigration in Europe (Neuding). However, labeling the Sweden Democrats as racist, fascist etc. to disqualify the party from the political sphere, this kind of rhetoric has by a big part of the electorate been considered nothing but hypocrite, given that the established parties have adopted the same policies that they years earlier condemned, having only resulted in lack of trust from the public in these parties. It is hardly an overstatement to say that the strategy to isolate Sweden Democrats by avoiding the topics has been nothing but a complete failure and has only resulted in increased popularity for the only party willing to discuss these issues.
In the last decade Sweden has suffered from an increase of gang-related crimes and shooting not comparable to the situation in other European countries. According to the police, there are more than 60 immigrant neighbourhoods where the authorities have little control. Last spring about 300 policemen got injured during massive riots in these areas. Afterwards, the head of the police referred to it as brutality never seen before (Neuding). Similarly, the deadly shootings have reached new all-time highs every year in the recent years and are much higher than in the neighbouring countries, where the expression “the Swedish condition” is frequently used to refer to shootings committed in gang-land environments. Taken into account that Sweden has the highest number of gun murders in Europe (Neuding), it should come as no surprise that crime was the most important issue in the parties’ election campaigns.
The political campaigns of left against right
While the right parties, most notably the Moderate Party and Kristdemokraterna (Christian Democrats) focused their election campaigns on harder punishments and reduced migration, the leftists put efforts into frightening the public with the dangers of having a right-wing party in the government (Neuding). It is fair to say that the parties’ campaigns were the dirtiest ever, with both sides using implacable rhetoric of a kind rarely seen before. More than anything else, a perennial issue in the election campaigns was a desire to return to a Sweden that may no longer exist.
Even though the right-parties were the first to adopt a stricter migration and integration politics, the leftist parties would soon follow suit, once they became aware that their actual politics cost them popularity not the least among their traditional electorate, which felt alienated from gender and climate issues. Some weeks before the election, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson stated that “we do not want any Somali towns”, conveniently forgetting to mention that such have occurred only as a result of decades and decades of Social Democrat politics. Nonetheless, such a statement was a strong indication of a change of direction in the party’s policy making. This statement did, however, clearly indicate that Swedish politicians had got inspiration by the Danish government, which has set a goal to limit the number of non-Western immigrants in the same neighbourhood to avoid to the establishment of “parallel structures”. Another proposal inspired by Danish politicians is the introduction of compulsory pre-school to facilitate the adoption of the host country’s language and values (Swejman, 2022).
The migration crisis in 2015 is usually referred to as a turning point in Swedish migration politics. This is not the least since its impact on the welfare and social life became extremely tangible. In fact, the Social Democrats after the migration crisis in 2015, when Sweden opened its borders to more people per capita than any other European country (Neuding), established an even stricter migration policy than the Sweden Democrats had advocated. A common perception is that before 2015 it was almost taboo to mention something that for many people for long time had been obvious: that Sweden has taken in more immigrants than it has been able to integrate (Neuding).
The question remains whether Sweden is experiencing a surge of right-wing politics. Critics have warned that Sweden will adopt policies closer to the ones of Hungary, and Poland. That is, however, less likely. The more plausible scenario is that Sweden is following the development that the neighbouring countries, especially Denmark, already have experienced. Now more than ever, Swedish politicians look at and refer to their southern neighbour as inspiration and support for new means to solve problems related to failed integration politics. The Moderate Party has, for instance, adopted a harder approach to organised criminality and has advocated stricter punishments as well as reforms in the juridical system, such as anonymous witnesses to easier detain criminals.
Eventual NATO accession
Another topic, although much less discussed, was the eventual NATO accession, which so far has been blocked by Turkey. Despite traditionally being a devoted adversary to NATO accession, the Social Democrats changed their position when Russia launched their invasion of Ukraine earlier this year.
The biggest challenge in foreign policy to solve for next government remains finding an agreement with Turkey. Among the demands of the Turkish government are the extraditions of opponents of the regime (Thorén), who are usually Kurds. The Kurdish diaspora has traditionally had strong bonds with the leftist parties, as clearly shown last year when the then Social Democrat government reached an agreement with the Irani-born Kurd Amineh Kakabaveh on support for Syrian Kurds, which upset the Turkish government.
The Turkish regime has perennially stated that the Scandinavian countries, especially Sweden, are hosting members of the PKK, which is deemed terrorist not only by Turkey but also by the US and the EU, and other opponents of the regime (Lindström). Taking into account the Kurdish diaspora’s strong ties to the leftist parties, there should be little doubt that Ankara is delighted by the outcome of the election.
Conclusions
That Sweden should undergo a surge of right-wing politics is heavily overstated. More plausible is to say that Sweden is adopting a policy similar to its Nordic neighbours. It could be concluded that immigration politics decided the outcome of the election. Accordingly, the election result was a clear indication that the Swedish electorate had had enough of failed integration policies.
Critics may state that the result is the beginning of normalisation of extremist nationalist politics, referring to Hungary as a deterrent example. However, a comparison to Denmark is more realistic and reasonable. The outcome of the election should also be seen as an adoption of a more sustainable migration policy, in line with people’s will. Additionally, Sweden Democrats’ politics should be seen as a milder, Scandinavian version of nationalism, which stresses progressive values, thus far from the one that arose in Hungary.
As long as the established parties continue to conduct a policy which has no support from the masses, the latter will likely vote for the parties that give them voice to express their discontent. A conclusion one can draw is that the immigration topic has overridden the traditional conflict dimensions in Swedish policymaking, which has usually revolved around issues such as privatisations of education and welfare institutions. As such, this election was centred around cultural issues, rather than the state-led versus privatized welfare dilemma. Seemingly, the traditional parties have, at least until now, failed to find a strategy to cope with a new political realm.
Sources
Lindström, A. (2022). Hufvudstadsbladet. ”Finsk Turkietexpert om Erdoğans nej till Finlands Natomedlemskap: ’Del av större spel’”. 13th May.
Neuding, P. (2022). The Spectator. “Sweden’s new powerbrokers”. 14th September.
Swejman, A (2022). Göteborgsposten. “Danmark visar väger ur integrationsproblemen”. 12th January.
Thorén, T. (2022). SvT. “Turkiet bäddar för bråk med Sveriges nästa regering”. 16th september.