Institute for a Greater EuropeA Turning Point? What The Results of the 2021 Census Mean for Northern Ireland
On 22nd September 2022 the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), an agency of the Department of Finance in Northern Ireland, published the results of the 2021 Northern Ireland Census. The poll revealed that for the first time in its history, Northern Ireland had more people brought up as Catholics (45.7%) than Protestants and other denominations (43.5%)[1]. In the rest of the United Kingdom and around the world, the publishing of census results is generally received with professional equanimity by policymakers, statisticians and functionaries and silent indifference by the average citizen. Census results offer a detailed image of a society as it evolves from one decade to the next and, as a rule, they are neither inherently controversial nor a source of anxiety as they reassuringly bear witness to the inevitable change which accompanies the passing of time. There are, however, notable exceptions to this rule and in several countries around the world plagued by sectarian conflict a census can become a source of deep political anxiety and tension. The most extreme example is perhaps the Lebanese one, where the last census was conducted in 1932, before the founding of the modern Lebanese state. A new census has never been conducted due to concerns over the political implications updated demographic results could have on the country’s fragile political system in which Christians, Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims share political power[2]. Despite an end to the Troubles and attempts at power-sharing between Unionists and Nationalists in Northern Ireland which provide much greater stability than in previous decades, the stakes of a census are much higher than in the rest of the United Kingdom.
The Origins and Character of Northern Ireland
In order to understand why a statistic about religious affiliation is of such consequence for the north-eastern corner of Ireland, it must be situated within the context of Northern Ireland’s origins and character as a state. Established by Westminster through the 1920 Government of Ireland Act as the Anglo-Irish War (also known as the Irish War of Independence) increased in ferocity, Northern Ireland consisted of six counties partitioned from the rest of Ireland[3]. Its establishment was intended to prevent the mostly Protestant Unionists who constituted a majority in Ireland’s most industrialised region from being included against their will in all-Ireland Home Rule, which would have involved being governed by a limited self-rule government in Dublin dominated by mostly Catholic Nationalists and agrarian interests. In practice, the Government of Ireland Act enabled Protestant Unionists to become a majority in a partitioned-off industrial North-east with their own parliament rather than a minority in a Catholic Nationalist-dominated Ireland. The partition of Ireland was subsequently consolidated through the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 which established the Irish Free State as a crown dominion within the British Empire and offered Northern Ireland the opportunity to opt out and remain within the United Kingdom, an opportunity which was readily seized by the Unionist politicians there to ensure their separation from the rest of Ireland[4]. The Union of 1801 would therefore remain in force with the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland becoming the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The Union would remain in force and a country would rename itself because Protestant Unionists in six counties of Ulster, a minority in Ireland as a whole, had the willpower and obstinacy to achieve their aim: their own state on their own terms.
Having been established to allow Protestant Unionists in the north-east to constitute a majority in as much of the island as they could dominate, Northern Ireland’s continued existence as part of the United Kingdom was predicated on the fact that the Protestant Unionist majority there preferred to retain the Union for sectarian and economic reasons rather than join the twenty-six southern counties, a territory they regarded as backward and foreign, ruled by an overwhelming Catholic Nationalist majority. Amid the political uncertainty and violent conflict that the new state was confronted with in its early years, its Protestant Unionist leaders, especially its first Prime Minister Sir James Craig, defined their state in opposition to the Catholic Nationalist 'Other’. Rather than attempting to reconcile Nationalists within Northern Ireland to the new state and despite demographic dominance, successive Unionist governments under Craig (1921-1940) and Lord Brookeborough (1943-1963) belied their fundamental insecurity with their political situation and fear of losing a favourable status quo. From the 1920’s, Catholic Nationalists were perceived as an enemy within the walls, disadvantaged against at the ballot box through electoral gerrymandering that ensured Unionist political hegemony even in majority Nationalist areas and watched-over by the Protestant-dominated Royal Ulster Constabulary, the guardian of the state[5]. As Westminster looked on, Stormont ensured that Northern Ireland served Protestant Unionist interests while condemning Catholic Nationalists to the status of second-class citizens.
The 1960s and Hopes for Reform
In the 1960’s movements and aspirations for reform and equality emerged around the world, and this wave of progressive thinking also came to Northern Ireland’s shores. This decade saw Brookeborough’s successor, Unionist politician Terence O’Neill (1963-1969) demonstrate a greater tolerance and openness to all sections of Northern Irish society than previous Prime Ministers. This attitude was informed by the conviction that the Catholic community needed to be treated on equal terms to Protestants as citizens of the United Kingdom if Northern Ireland were to survive in the long-term. This conviction led O’Neill to adopt a conciliatory stance to the Catholic and Nationalist community during his premiership, meeting the Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Sean Lemass twice in Belfast and Dublin, the first to do so since the early 1920’s[6]. Additional gestures by O’Neill included visiting Catholic schools and offering condolences on the death of Pope John XXIII – an unprecedented act for a Unionist leader[7]. This progressive stance and desire for an end to sectarian divisions from a Unionist Prime Minister was paralleled on the Nationalist side by the rise of a civil rights movement (NICRA) which campaigned for the rights of Catholic Nationalists and for reform[8].
The aspirations of moderate Unionists like O’Neill and Nationalists which raised the prospect of a more equal and democratic Northern Ireland were prevented, however, from being fully realised by the political extremes. On the one hand, many in the Ulster Unionist Party opposed any symbolic actions or policy concessions which would undermine their dominant position in Northern Ireland, and they therefore gave their loyalty to the new Democratic Unionist Party led by Rev. Ian Paisley which promoted an uncompromising and hard-line stance towards Nationalists and Dublin[9]. On the other hand, attempts by Nationalists to achieve reform and greater equality within Northern Ireland while preserving a long-term desire for a united Ireland to be gained through democratic means were hampered by a resurgent Irish Republican Army (IRA). The IRA advocated a far more radical strategy than the Nationalists and believed that forcing the end of British rule in Northern Ireland through violence and terror would be more effective at achieving a united Ireland than peaceful reform. The frustration of the attempts at reconciliation and progress by both moderate Unionists and Nationalists by extremes on both sides by the end of the 1960’s coincided with the beginning of the Troubles, a destructive conflict characterised by paramilitary atrocities committed on both sides which made any reconciliation impossible for decades.
The Peace Process and Power-Sharing
Although the IRA ultimately failed in its campaign to achieve a united Ireland by force, the price of peace for Unionists was acceptance that they could no longer govern their state as they had before the imposition of direct rule by Westminster in 1972. Thus, in order to end the traumatising violence of the past, the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and introduction of Power-Sharing at Stormont as part of the ongoing Peace Process have established a new status quo in Northern Ireland. Protestant Unionists and Catholic Nationalists now live in a society where everyone is entitled to equal respect and opportunity, a reality which serves as a testament to the transformative impact of the Peace Process despite its imperfections and the short-sightedness of some politicians who forget their responsibility to future generations. One thing that the Peace Process did not change, however, was the fact that as in the early 1920’s, Northern Ireland remained in the United Kingdom and partitioned from the rest of Ireland because Protestant Unionists in six counties of Ulster, a minority in Ireland as a whole, wanted their own state and had a demographic and electoral majority to retain it. Power would now be shared with Nationalists who would remain a demographic and electoral minority and Northern Ireland would continue to exist.
The Results of the 2021 Census
Given this historical context and the traditional rationale for Northern Ireland’s continued existence within the United Kingdom, the revelation in the 2021 census that Catholics outnumber Protestants for the first time in Northern Ireland is an incredible historical moment. Although it is possible to be a Catholic Unionist or a Protestant Nationalist, the close aligning of religious and political affiliation in Northern Ireland means that this demographic change immediately raises one critical question about the future: Can Northern Ireland, a state founded by Protestant Unionists to preserve their interests, have a long-term future as part of the United Kingdom now that Protestants are no longer the majority? The answer, despite Sinn Féin overtaking the Democratic Unionist Party as the largest party in the mid-2022 Stormont elections and Catholicism becoming the majority faith, is that it can.
The emergence of this new status quo, even if it does steal the headlines, does not herald an abrupt end to Northern Ireland in the near future. Though tempting and convenient, religious and political identities must not be made synonymous with each other by those examining the state of Northern Ireland. While the population of Northern Ireland remains, comparatively speaking, a very religious one in the twenty-first century, the census results reveal that the issue is more complex than the headlines suggest. While 45.7% of the population were brought up Catholic, only 42.3% are practicing, and although 43.5% were brought up Protestant or other Christian, only 37.3% still practice their faith, and 17.4% of all respondents have no current religion[10]. These statistics show that Catholics in Northern Ireland are more likely to retain their faith than their Protestant counterparts but tells us nothing of their political identity. If one were to only use these figures on religious identity and conflate religion with politics, it would be easy to conclude that Northern Ireland’s Catholic Nationalists now hold the demographic upper hand. The figures on political identity, however, show a more nuanced reality. The census offered several different identity options including “British”, “Irish” and “Northern Irish” and respondents could select more than one option. As of census day 2021, 42.8% of people in Northern Ireland identified solely or with other identities as British while only 33.3% identified solely or with other identities as Irish[11]. A decisive shift across the population in favour of a united Ireland has therefore not come about. More specific figures, however, do suggest that Unionism has lost some ground. The most notable example of this is perhaps that while one million Northern Irish people hold a British passport and 614,000 an Irish one (Northern Irish people are entitled to hold both simultaneously)[12], 31.9% of Northern Irish people identify as British only and 29.1% as Irish only, a very narrow margin[13].
Conclusion
After considering these statistics on religious and political identity in Northern Ireland in late 2022 against a backdrop of political deadlock at Stormont over the Northern Ireland Protocol and the possibility of a second Stormont election in a few months, the results of the 2021 census do not appear in themselves to signify the beginning of the end of Northern Ireland’s existence. More Catholics than Protestants now live there, but more people in Northern Ireland continue to identify as British and accept the current constitutional situation than identify as Irish and reject it. Gone are the days when mainly Protestant Unionists could dominate Northern Ireland in pursuit of their own interests at the expense of mainly Catholic Nationalists. At least for the moment, the majority consensus is that Northern Ireland should remain in the United Kingdom despite demographic change. The real question posed by the census results revolves around how Unionists and their elected representatives will respond to them. Will they accept the new situation and attempt to demonstrate that it is possible to identify as British in Northern Ireland but hold Catholic, non-Christian or no faith and that it is in the economic interests of the population as a whole to remain in the United Kingdom? Or will they do everything in their power to frustrate attempts to govern Northern Ireland on anything but their own terms? The actions of the largest Unionist party, the Democratic Unionist Party, in the last few months would suggest that it, at least, has opted for the latter approach. Rather than ensuring Northern Ireland remains a functioning democracy within the United Kingdom, it would rather not form a power-sharing executive and prevent democratic governance than play second fiddle to a stronger Sinn Féin. This short-sighted belief that it is preferable for the largest Unionist party to not govern at all when it is not the largest party will do much more damage to Northern Ireland’s future within the United Kingdom than any Nationalist political effort. If Unionist politicians abdicate their responsibility to provide the people of Northern Ireland with the demographic governance they deserve and want, the people of Northern Ireland will look elsewhere for it.
[1] ‘Census 2021: Main statistics for Northern Ireland, Phase 1 September 2022’, on http://www.nisra.gov.uk/census2021, at: <https://www.nisra.gov.uk/system/files/statistics/census-2021-main-statistics-for-northern-ireland-phase-1-report.pdf >, , p.34.
[2] Barshad, Amos, ‘The World’s Most Dangerous Census: Why Lebanon won’t—officially, at least—count its own population’, on thenation.com at <https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/lebanon-census/>, .
[3] Rees, Russell, Ireland 1900-1925, 8th edition (Newtownards: Colourpoint, 2021), pp.321-324.
[4] Jackson, Alvin, Ireland 1798-1998: War, Peace and Beyond, 2nd edition (London: Blackwell, 2010), pp.336-337.
[5] Mulholland, Marc, The Longest War: Northern Ireland’s Troubled History (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp.45-47.
Rees, Russell, Ireland 1900-1925, pp.331-332.
[6] Jackson, Alvin, Ireland 1798-1998: War, Peace and Beyond, pp.320-321.
[7] Ibid., p.358.
[8] Mulholland, Marc, The Longest War: Northern Ireland’s Troubled History, p.61.
[9] Jackson, Alvin, Ireland 1798-1998: War, Peace and Beyond, pp.367-368.
[10] ‘Census 2021: Main statistics for Northern Ireland, Phase 1 September 2022’, pp.33-35.
[11] Ibid., p.32.
[12] ‘Census 2021: Main statistics for Northern Ireland, Phase 1 - Briefing, on http://www.nisra.gov.uk/census2021, at: <https://www.nisra.gov.uk/system/files/statistics/census-2021-main-statistics-for-northern-ireland-phase-1-briefing.pdf>, .
[13] ‘Census 2021: Main statistics for Northern Ireland, Phase 1 September 2022’, p.31.