Institute for a Greater EuropeThe 2023 Local and Parliamentary elections in Serbia: Stabilitocracy as usual?
Adrian Waters - Writer, Institute for a Greater Europe
In November 2023 the President of the Republic of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić dissolved his country’s parliament and called for snap municipal and parliamentary elections to be held on the 17th of December.[1] Hence the Serbs went to the polls in what could be considered as one of the most important elections since 2014 both in terms of the context they occurred in and their impact on the domestic political scene.
The elections were held as a response to the appeal by opposition parties for a popular ballot. They began this call after the governing coalition headed by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), formerly led by the incumbent President, refused to accept the demands of those who participated in protests held after two mass shootings in May 2023 which resulted in the deaths of 18 people, including 9 children. Those who organised these demonstrations blamed the SNS and pro-government media outlets for stimulating a culture of violence.[2] Such a culture, according to the organisers, is characterised by national television channels that broadcast violent reality shows in which gangsters, football hooligans and war criminals appear in scenes where women are physically assaulted and where individuals are threatened at gunpoint. These are then displayed next to programmes featuring Vučić and his political allies berating their rivals. Parliamentary sessions are also marked by exchanges of vulgar insults. Consequently, many Serbs have accused the President of indirectly fostering a toxic, hateful atmosphere.[3] According to some analysts, the decision to hold an early parliamentary election (a year after the previous one held in April 2022) is supposed to strengthen Vučić’s popular backing and reform the SNS, whose popularity among voters has decreased in the aftermath of the May massacres. The elections were a way for the President to consolidate his position further while delaying attempts to normalise Serbia’s relations with Kosovo, which Belgrade still regards as a province. Indeed, the Serbian leadership is facing pressure from major EU leaders to not only improve its ties with Prishtina, but also to join Western sanctions against Russia, fight corruption and organised crime, and ameliorate Serbia’s human rights reputation and judicial system.[4] Despite external and domestic pressure, it was widely expected that the SNS would triumph once more in the December 17th election,[5] which duly happened.
To better understand Aleksandar Vučić as a statesman and why he is seen as a divisive figure one must look at his political career so far. Born in Belgrade in 1970, he joined the right-wing ultranationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) in 1993, for which he was its general secretary as well as an MP. Between 1998 and 2000 he was Serbia’s Minister for Information during which he implemented some of the most repressive laws on freedom of speech in Europe, including a ban on foreign TV stations and imposing fines on journalists who were critical of the government.[6] From 2000 onwards the Serbian Radical Party has remained in the opposition. Such a condition was exacerbated by the fact that although it won the most votes of any individual party in the 2003, 2007, and 2008 parliamentary elections, no other political group wished to collaborate with the SRS due to its uncompromising nationalist, anti-Western and pro-Russian platform. In this context, Vučić and some other party members realised that their political prospects were declining because Serbian public opinion started to favour EU integration and the core SRS electorate became frustrated with the party’s inability to seize power, leading them to form the SNS in the aftermath of the 2008 parliamentary elections. It was founded as a pro-EU centre-right party that rejected Greater Serbian nationalism, but also opposed the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state.[7]
In 2012 the SNS formed its first government with Vučić who acted as a Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister. Later he became Prime Minister in 2014 and then President of the Republic in 2017. In the meantime the SNS won four consecutive parliamentary elections in 2014, 2016, 2020 and 2022, allowing Vučić to be indirectly in charge of the executive as he personally appointed Ana Brnabić to replace him as prime minister in 2017. He gradually succeeded in consolidating his rule, but also in polarising Serbian public opinion. Critics argue that he has undermined democracy in the country with his almost total control of the public institutions and the media.[8] This is evidenced by the fact that organisations such as Reporters without Borders and Freedom House have highlighted significant reductions in civil liberties, political rights, press freedom, institutional independence and overall transparency.[9] Consequently, Serbia has been labelled a ‘transitional or hybrid regime’.[10] On the other hand supporters of Vučić claim that his dominance in national politics is a product of effective governance and that his policies have contributed to economic growth as seen by the doubling of the country’s GDP over the past decade.[11] Serbia also has a lower unemployment rate (9.1 per cent as projected by the International Monetary Fund) than some of the EU member states as well as a reduced budget deficit (3 per cent).[12]
In addition, the Serbian president also enjoys the benefit of being regarded as the only leader who can deal with the country’s issues on the global stage, especially its interactions with Kosovo and balancing between the EU and Russia. He was able to impose the idea that only he could work effectively with the West, which the country’s external partners accepted.[13] Many have blamed the EU for not thwarting Vučić’s growing authoritarianism. Even when he refused to impose sanctions on Russia, the Union and the US continued to collaborate with him in order to reach a solution regarding Kosovo.[14] As a matter of fact, the rule of Vučić and the SNS has been legitimised and endorsed by EU figures, such as former German chancellor Angela Merkel who applauded the Serbian president’s “very good reform record” and the ex-European Council President Donald Tusk who described him as a “soul mate”.[15] These appraisals have permitted the SNS to deflect domestic critiques, making the Serbian opposition reluctant to interact with EU officials whom they believe are undermining their values. This dismissal of Serbia’s democratic backsliding is motivated by the desire of EU institutions and member states to settle Kosovo’s status.[16] It has been said that the EU’s behaviour in the Western Balkans has encouraged the rise of stabilitocracy, a phenomenon in which self-defined pro-EU authoritarian leaders do as they wish as long as they provide stability.[17] Serbia is considered to be a textbook case of a stabilitocracy since EU officials and key figures have continually given external legitimacy to Vučić, despite his undemocratic practices.[18]
In contrast to the SNS and its allies, the Serbian opposition is more heterogeneous. To be exact, there are multiple forces against Vučić. The main one was the ‘Serbia against Violence’ electoral list comprising the parties that organised the demonstrations in the aftermath of the May shootings.[19] It included green, centre-left and civic parties that campaigned mainly on the topics of corruption, media freedom and the rule of law.[20] Right-wing parties formed electoral coalitions, such as the New Democratic Party of Serbia and the Movement for Restoration of the Kingdom of Serbia that were united under the NADA banner.[21] These forces espoused socially conservative views and concentrated on the Kosovo issue.[22] The opposition was disadvantaged from the beginning. Firstly, because it was not completely united, especially the right-wing parties which did not form a unified electoral bloc.[23] Secondly, the Serbia media is overwhelmingly pro-Vučić and independent outlets have a constricted distribution range.[24] Most of the election media coverage gave space to government representatives and often portrayed the opposition negatively.[25] Thirdly, those in the anti-government camp have been subjected to pressure involving violent incidents, the alleged use of spyware on opposition activists and the disruption of meetings by suspected SNS members.[26] Lastly, Vučić and his party are still indisputably popular for reasons such as a desire for continuity and the fact that jobs and monetary handouts are given to anyone who joins or votes for the SNS.[27]
Considering the above-mentioned circumstances the final results of the December 17th 2023 parliamentary elections delivered another astounding victory for the SNS which gained 47 per cent of the vote, while the ‘Serbia against violence’ list only received 23 per cent, meaning that Vučić’s party can form a government on its own.[28] This result was an unexpected improvement from the 2022 ballot when the SNS lost its majority after winning only 44.3 per cent. The party also received the most votes in Belgrade and in other parts of Serbia. Nevertheless, election observers have highlighted numerous irregularities that occurred before and during election day such as physical assaults, vote buying and the bussing of ethnic Serbs from Bosnia-Herzegovina to polling stations. Unsurprisingly, the opposition has refused to acknowledge the results, calling for investigations into electoral fraud and holding protests in Belgrade during which 38 people have been arrested. Vučić seized the opportunity to say that those who were supposedly against violence were the real thugs (in a not-so-subtle reference to the ‘Serbia against violence’ coalition) and denounced the demonstrations as an externally-backed attempt at regime change. Russian officials reiterated this claim by declaring that the West is fomenting the unrest in a way that resembles the 2014 Maidan revolution in Ukraine. Suspicions of a foreign plot increased after a flag with the words ‘Euromaidan Serbia’ was noticed at a recent protest.[29] Meanwhile, the US State Department as well as the EU High Representative Josep Borrell and Enlargement Commissioner Olivér Várhelyi have called on the Balkan republic to address concerns about electoral irregularities. However, as explained earlier, the EU already has lost its credibility among many Serbs because their country’s democratic regression was enabled by the Union.[30]
At the time of writing, it seems likely that the SNS will form a majority government that will maintain the status quo. It is unclear what the next steps for the anti-Vučić camp will be if their demands are not met. Despite the fact that Serbia’s electoral commission has allowed an election re-run in 30 polling booths, the main opposition force decided to boycott such ballots.[31] Most importantly it is still uncertain whether the EU’s behaviour towards Vučić will change if he continues with his authoritarian methods. It will depend on how the Union intends to resolve the Kosovo dilemma, but this means that probably the Serbian president’s poor democratic record will be overlooked for the sake of stability in the Balkans and thus perpetuate the phenomenon of stabilitocracy. Some scholars have argued that the necessity for stabilitocracies to acquire legitimacy via crises and foreign support tends to make them intrinsically unstable.[32] On the other hand, it has also been said that after a while stabilitocracies can become full-fledged autocracies, especially if they are endorsed from abroad [33], which seems to be the case for Serbia. Consequently, it will not be unsurprising that the country will see more domestic turmoil in the near future, but the survival of the Vučić regime will also depend on the ever-changing geopolitical situation in Europe and how the President will continue to navigate through the unpredictable waters of the present-day multipolar world.
References
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[2] Ibid.
[3] Jon Henley and Milivoje Pantovic, “ ‘We have a violent society’: hate speech in spotlight after Serbian mass shootings,” accessed December 10, 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/vucic-created-this-atmosphere-of-hate-serbians-wary-of-presidents-gun-pledge.
[4] Henley and O’Carroll, “Serbia’s president dissolves parliament and calls early election.”
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[7] Andrew Konitzer, “Speaking European: Conditionality, Public Attitudes and Pro-European Party Rhetoric in the Western Balkans,” Europe-Asia Studies 63, no. 10 (2011): 1879-1882.
[8] Vock and Jovana Georgievski, “Aleksandar Vucic: the man who remade Serbia.”
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[11] Vock and Georgievski, “Aleksandar Vucic: the man who remade Serbia.”
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[14] Euronews and AP, “Serbians dreaming of EU membership feel betrayed by Vučić’s government,” accessed December 22, 2023, https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/13/serbians-dreaming-of-eu-membership-feel-betrayed-by-vucics-government-and-the-bloc.
[15] Solveig Richter and Natascha Wunsch, “Money, power, glory: the linkages between EU conditionality and state capture in the Western Balkans”, Journal of European Public Policy 27, no. 1 (2020): 52-53.
[16] Ibid.
[17] Roberto Belloni, The Rise and Fall of Peacebuilding in the Balkans (Palgrave Macmillan, 2020), 236-237.
[18] Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, Myrthe de Boon, Alban Dafa, Strahinja Subotić, Milena Muk, Arber Fetahu, Ardita Abazi Imeri, Emina Kuhinja and Hata Kujraković, The EU as a promoter of democracy or ‘stabilitocracy’ in the Western Balkans? (Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’, 2022), 38-40.
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[20] Euronews Serbia and Euronews, “Everything you need to know about Serbia elections.”
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[22] Euronews Serbia and Euronews, “Everything you need to know about Serbia elections.”
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[32] Florian Bieber, “The rise (and fall) of Balkan stabilitocracies,” Horizons: Journal of International Relations and Sustainable Development, no. 10 (Winter 2018): 184.
[33] Damir Kapidzic, Marika Djolai, Marko Kmezic, Natasha Wunsch, Tena Prelec, Florian Bieber, Donika Emini, Jovana Marovic, Gjergji Vurmo and Alejandro Esteso, Beyond Stabilitocracy. Unveiling the Rise of Autocracy in the Western Balkans (Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group, 2023), 13, https://biepag.eu/publication/beyond-stabilitocracy-unveiling-the-rise-of-autocracy-in-the-western-balkans/.